The Treasury Bond Market Made Plain
Serious attention is being paid the the U.S. Treasury bond market in recent trading. When T-bonds show action, the dollar does also. If there is a decline in long-term Treasury bond prices, the dollar also plummets. According to the March 2009 report of the Fed's Flow of Funds, there was $14.5 trillion outstanding in agency securities, mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities.
Foreign countries are heavily invested in U.S. debt as an investment with China being the first holder of U.S. bonds. More than a few economists believe that if China stops buying them, the U.S. economy would face ever increasing interest rates to make U.S. debt more attractive.
With the current out-of-control spending and huge deficit in government, U.S. Treasury securities' real value is the focus of more and more attention. China wants to make sure that their assets are safe, and if there is any question that U.S. credibility is in doubt, the option to liquidate some of their U.S. assets is more likely an option.
If China and other nations refuse to buy U.S. debt, the only alternative is for the U.S. Treasury to purchase Treasury securities which would dramatically increase the money supply. To attract investors, interest rates would need to rise. As is the case, when the Fed starts buying Treasury bills habitually, inflation ensues. The Fed in the mid-2009 scenario has used much of the money to buy over $500 billion in mortgage backed securities.
In a normal economic environment, higher interest rates would be associated with the central bank as they try to cool off inflationary pressures associated with an expanding money supply. However, with less demand for Treasuries, higher interest rates to attract buyer demand is the only viable recourse. Yet higher interest would only push an already declining economy, deeper in the hole. Higher interest rates mean a greater burden on the populace resulting in more mortgage defaults and negative pressure on consumer debt.
The record-breaking Treasury offerings out of Washington along with the Fed churning out dollars bills is incredible. The floodgate pushed open by the U.S. Treasury is making bond yields soar. Economists are beginning to wonder who will be purchasing these bonds.
Inflationary deficit spending can destroy a nation. The renowned late economist, Milton Friedman warned that "Inflation is a disease, a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease that, if not checked in time, can destroy a society."
China remains the number one holder of U.S. debt. Milton Friedman warned, "The Fate of a Country Is Inseparable From the Fate of Its Currency." Climbing interest rates and inflation scare an already fragile domestic and global economy. As such, the debt onslaught is boosting bond yields as the appetite for money to finance the government's budget deficit shows no sign of dieting. - 23314
Foreign countries are heavily invested in U.S. debt as an investment with China being the first holder of U.S. bonds. More than a few economists believe that if China stops buying them, the U.S. economy would face ever increasing interest rates to make U.S. debt more attractive.
With the current out-of-control spending and huge deficit in government, U.S. Treasury securities' real value is the focus of more and more attention. China wants to make sure that their assets are safe, and if there is any question that U.S. credibility is in doubt, the option to liquidate some of their U.S. assets is more likely an option.
If China and other nations refuse to buy U.S. debt, the only alternative is for the U.S. Treasury to purchase Treasury securities which would dramatically increase the money supply. To attract investors, interest rates would need to rise. As is the case, when the Fed starts buying Treasury bills habitually, inflation ensues. The Fed in the mid-2009 scenario has used much of the money to buy over $500 billion in mortgage backed securities.
In a normal economic environment, higher interest rates would be associated with the central bank as they try to cool off inflationary pressures associated with an expanding money supply. However, with less demand for Treasuries, higher interest rates to attract buyer demand is the only viable recourse. Yet higher interest would only push an already declining economy, deeper in the hole. Higher interest rates mean a greater burden on the populace resulting in more mortgage defaults and negative pressure on consumer debt.
The record-breaking Treasury offerings out of Washington along with the Fed churning out dollars bills is incredible. The floodgate pushed open by the U.S. Treasury is making bond yields soar. Economists are beginning to wonder who will be purchasing these bonds.
Inflationary deficit spending can destroy a nation. The renowned late economist, Milton Friedman warned that "Inflation is a disease, a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease that, if not checked in time, can destroy a society."
China remains the number one holder of U.S. debt. Milton Friedman warned, "The Fate of a Country Is Inseparable From the Fate of Its Currency." Climbing interest rates and inflation scare an already fragile domestic and global economy. As such, the debt onslaught is boosting bond yields as the appetite for money to finance the government's budget deficit shows no sign of dieting. - 23314
About the Author:
Use today's news and receive insight to profit from with a wall street journal subscription. The Wall Street Journal and Barrons Magazine reign as top-draw for in-depth analysis and timely advice. The real deal. At 80% off newsstand prices, youll get more than you bargained for. Wall Street Subscription
posted by Mr. Forex at
1:59 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home